KEY BISCAYNE, FL — If you want a case study in market hubris, just pull up the MLS for Key Biscayne single-family homes built after 2013 especially in that sweet spot (read: purgatory) $5 million plus segment. Spoiler alert: they’re not moving. Not in a week, not in a month, not in…well, let’s just say some of these listings are developing their own birthdays. Here’s the backstory.

2013 was the dawn of a new era. The post–2008 financial crisis hangover finally wore off, and Miami put away the Alka-Seltzer. A few shiny new builds hit the market. Latin America, meanwhile, was busy imploding Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia sending high-net- worth families north with suitcases full of cash and a craving for stability. Key Biscayne checked every box: private, safe, family-friendly, endless summer, and just enough exclusivity to feel like they’d “made it.”

The math was delicious: land to build a new home at $900k–$1.2M, brand-new homes selling easily at $3M. Everyone was happy until late 2015, when things started to cool. Prices slid gently downward. A major driver behind this shift was the rising value of the U.S. dollar. which appreciated by about 17% against major currencies. This made Miami real estate significantly more expensive for foreign investors. For example, both the Venezuelan Bolivar and the Brazilian real plunged from which Miami draws considerable investor interest—by about 36% and 28%, respectively, making purchases far less affordable. Then 2020 arrived.

Cue the COVID bonanza. Florida was first out of lockdown, and the floodgates opened. But this time, it wasn’t just Latin American money it was hedge fund managers, tech execs, and trust fund royalty from New York, Massachusetts, Chicago, Texas, California… and every deep- pocketed buyer with Zoom privileges lining up. They weren’t here to browse; they were here to buy anything with a roof.

Bidding wars erupted. People lined up outside open houses like it was the iPhone launch. Interest rates hit record lows, adding rocket fuel to an already nuclear market. For 2½ years, the market behaved like a frat party with an open bar — pure chaos, and everyone thought it would last forever.Then came 2023. Interest rates shot up like a SpaceX launch. Demand deflated. Homes sat. Sellers clung to yesterday’s prices like they were life vests, hoping for a “lucky buyer.” Spoiler: the buyer are now the ones setting the rules, and they’ve been reading the comps.

Fast-forward to today: inventory in that $5M plus post-2013 bracket is stacking up like unsold Pelotons. Owners are swapping brokers like Tinder dates, convinced a fresh headshot and a few TikTok dances will do the trick. Meanwhile, the carrying costs are quietly bleeding their bank accounts.

The Harsh Math

Wrong price = no showings. No showings = no offers. No offers = months on market, carrying costs eating into bank accounts. TikTok videos, flashy brochures, switching agents every quarter none of it will fix overpricing.

The Playbook Now

Price right from the start and strike first. Otherwise? Your neighbor will drop their price before you, and you’ll be the one chasing the market down.

The COVID rush is a distant memory. The market doesn’t care what you paid, how much you love your home, or what your neighbor “got” two years ago.

Reality check: Reality sells. Wishful thinking just sits on Zillow. If you’re not pricing aggressively, your neighbor will and when their “realistic” number steals your buyer, you’ll wish you’d taken the hit first. In this market, the first one to cut is the first one to cash. Everyone else is just… staging for the next price reduction.

About the Author

Lucas Boccheciampe is a Key Biscayne–based luxury real estate broker and founder of Vantage Luxury Real Estate. He specializes in high-end properties and market strategy in Miami. @lucasboccheciampe